From Rush Hour to Hushed Hour?

We are regularly reminded by statisticians that surveys represent a ‘snapshot’ in time, providing a picture of data on a given day and not necessarily representative of long-term trends. The 2021 Census perhaps represents the ultimate case study for the difficulties of inferring trends from a snapshot in time, having been conducted during a time of unprecedented restrictions on travel and social mixing in the third national lockdown of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

In particular, the Census Origin-Destination commuting dataset, released by the Office for National Statistics (‘ONS’) in October 2023, unsurprisingly records a significant increase in levels of homeworking and a corresponding fall in commuting flows to work. But to what extent is this snapshot still a reflection of the realities of commuting in 2024, where Covid-related travel restrictions are long in the rear-view mirror and with many people returning to the office (for a few days a week at least)?

 

This poses a problem for planners and policy-makers more widely, who typically rely upon Census commuting data to prepare evidence to inform policy on a range of issues, including both housing and economic development. However, the unique circumstances surrounding travel in 2021 casts some doubts over the applicability of the long-awaited Census 2021 data for this purpose.

 

This Insight Focus examines how commuting flows were impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, explores how the new 2021 data might be interpreted, and considers how the data should be used by policy-makers.