The 2016-based Household Projections for England

20 Sep 2018
On 20th September 2018, ONS published the 2016-based Household Projections. This is ONS’s first set of projections, having taken over responsibility from MHCLG in 2017. ONS project average household growth nationally of 159,000 per annum 2016-41 (165,000 over the ten year period 2018-28), compared to 210,000 per annum 2014-39 (218,000 over the ten years 2018–28). These projections form the current basis for estimating housing needs under the current ‘standard method’, but further changes are afoot.
For reasons we explain in this publication, the Government is already proposing to consult on changes to the methodology to one consistent with achieving 300,000 homes per annum. These latest projections may prove less important to housing need than previous iterations.
This guide has been produced by Lichfields to help you navigate the new household projections. Click on an area of England for the headlines, including:
  • Difference in projected household growth (by authority and housing market area) between the 2014-based and 2016-based projections
  • Possible standard method figure
  • How this compares to average rates of new housing over the past three years.