The stand-off between Unilever and the UK’s major food retailers in recent weeks brought some of the new challenges facing the town centre and retail sector into sharp focus and onto the front pages. The result of the June referendum on EU membership and subsequent fluctuations in the value of the pound will undoubtedly present further challenges over time, albeit challenges which can hopefully be overcome just as swiftly. However, even before the EU Referendum, the UK’s town and city centres were facing a number of challenges and continuing to evolve in response to changes in the retail and leisure market.
NLP’s new research paper,
What Next for Town Centre and Retail Development? - the latest in a series aimed at
Supporting Scotland’s Growth - considers recent trends alongside future projections to identify those sectors and locations where opportunities for growth continue to exist.
In Scotland, town centres have been subject to many of the same challenges as those experienced across the UK, with pressure on household finances and the rise of internet shopping changing the way that consumers shop and the way that communities use their local centres.
The contribution which the retail sector makes to the Scottish economy cannot be understated, with nearly 10% of enterprises in Scotland being registered retailers, a figure that is notably higher than the UK average. Total consumer spending in Scotland is double and treble that of Wales and Northern Ireland respectively, and the sector is undoubtedly essential to supporting Scotland’s growth.
Our latest research finds that expenditure on both leisure and retail-based GVA is forecast to increase by more than 20% over the next 15 years in Scotland, but that there is still a significantly lower level of provision of food-based leisure services than the UK average (12% compared to 16%). With town centres playing an increasing social role for communities in comparison to their historical focus upon retailing, there is evidently more scope for related social and leisure uses which will complement current retail functions.
Projections in population growth and household expenditure illustrate significant regional variation in growth potential, with ‘centre regions’ – particularly Edinburgh - emerging as key locations and opportunities for further investment. This pattern is reinforced by the improving performance of certain Scottish centres in Venuescore’s retail rankings. It is of particular note that Edinburgh has the lowest level of shopping centre and retail warehouse floorspace per head of Scotland’s four major cities, with Glasgow close behind, yet both have significant population and household expenditure growth forecast.
The national policy context exists for Scotland’s town and retail centres to thrive. With increasing emphasis on a variety of uses and the night-time economy, as well as Scottish Planning Policy’s proactive approach to the designation of commercial centres within local retail hierarchies, the conditions necessary and desirable for the continued diversification of town centres are in place.
It is encouraging to see major new developments investment being planned or taking place in both Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres, and outwith the centres such as at intu Braehead in Renfrewshire, and at Chesser Avenue in Edinburgh. The outlook is positive and our research clearly points to there being significant potential for new or increased investment in the food and leisure sectors alongside retail in key locations. What is essential now is that local policy and decision-makers recognise these trends and plan positively for the future success of city and town centres.
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