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More Afloat – New NPPF and the Sequential Test

More Afloat – New NPPF and the Sequential Test

Max Kidd-Rossiter 20 Dec 2024
My previous blog post spoke to the uncertainty that has arisen since the Mead/Redrow High Court Judgment was handed down in February 2024. The judgment held that the Planning Practice Guidance (‘PPG’) has the same legal status as the National Planning Policy Framework (‘NPPF’). This means that, as detailed in the PPG, the sequential test should take account of all sources of flood risk, including surface water flood risk, and not just fluvial flood risk.  It also means that, even if a site-specific flood risk assessment (‘FRA’) concludes that mitigation measures or existing flood defences result in a low risk of flooding, the sequential test would still need to be satisfied.
Following the judgment, it has been broadly accepted that planning applications should satisfy the sequential test if any part of the site is at risk of flooding from any source, unless one of the PPG exemptions apply[1].  This gave rise to the obvious solution to avoid the sequential test by amending red-line boundary to omit areas at risk from flooding.  However, the new NPPF contains a mechanism by which it will be possible to avoid application of the sequential test even if part of the site is at risk from flooding.
 
Changes to the NPPF
Paragraph 175 of the new NPPF includes an addition which establishes the situations when the sequential test is not required:
The sequential test should be used in areas known to be at risk now or in the future from any form of flooding, except in situations where a site-specific flood risk assessment demonstrates that no built development within the site boundary, including access or escape routes, land raising or other potentially vulnerable elements, would be located on an area that would be at risk of flooding from any source, now and in the future (having regard to potential changes in flood risk).
The sequential test can now be avoided at application stage on sites at risk from flooding if it is possible to locate the built development, access or escape routes, land raising, and other vulnerable elements away from any areas at risk from flooding from any source.  Whilst this might appear to be a modest change in policy, it is important.  It will enable the delivery of sites where only part of the area is at risk of flooding, without the challenges and risks associated with the application of the sequential test.
By requiring those part of a site that are at risk of flooding to remain free from built development or sensitive uses, the new approach will continue to minimise the risks associated with flooding. The Government’s response to the draft NPPF consultation reiterates, as established in the PPG[2], that a site-specific FRA cannot rely on mitigation measures that require active maintenance.  This is because their effectiveness in mitigating flood risk cannot be guaranteed in perpetuity.  Active mitigation measures therefore cannot be relied on to justify not satisfying the sequential test, if the elements listed in NPPF paragraph 175 are positioned on areas at risk from flooding. 
A further addition to this part of the NPPF is set out in paragraph 173.  This states that a sequential risk-based approach should also be taken to individual applications in areas known to be at risk now or in the future from any form of flooding.  The Government’s response to the draft NPPF consultation states this paragraph has been inserted to clarify the difference between applying the sequential test to plan-making and decision making.  This paragraph previously only related to the role of the sequential test at plan making stage and so the Government is now giving it a greater remit.
NPPF paragraph 180 states that where planning application come forward on allocated sites which were previously subject to the sequential test at plan preparation stage, it will not be necessary to reapply the sequential test.  It is not clear how this will play out for applications on allocations where the strategic flood risk assessment (‘SFRA’) that informed the plan did not consider all forms of flooding.  In the context of new NPPF paragraph 173, it is also not clear how to judge whether the SFRA has sufficiently considered future flood risk.  However, paragraph 180 does state that “the exception test may need to be reapplied if relevant aspects of the proposal had not been considered when the test was applied at the plan-making stage, or if more recent information about existing or potential flood risk should be taken into account.”   The list of considerations that might fall within this caveat may be extensive.
What if the built development, access or escape routes, land raising, or other potentially vulnerable elements of my scheme are located on areas of the site at risk from flooding?
If these elements cannot be positioned to avoid areas known to be at risk of flooding from any source, either now or in the future, the sequential test will need to be satisfied.  My previous blog provided some practical tips to navigate the sequential test, including how to tightly define the criteria for identifying “reasonably available sites”.  The Government’s response to the draft NPPF consultation confirms than a forthcoming update to the PPG is on the way in “early 2025” and that this will clarify the definition of “reasonably available sites” that should be considered as part of the sequential test. 
What next?
The new NPPF has confirmed that the sequential test is here to stay for sites at risk of flooding from surface water (and all other sources).  We are also now clear that site-specific FRAs cannot rely on active mitigation measures to avoid undertaking the sequential test, where one would otherwise be required.  Further updates to the PPG on this topic are expected in early 2025.  In addition to clarifying the definition of “reasonably available sites”, it would be helpful if the following points are also clarified by the update to the PPG:
  1. That failing the sequential test does not preclude granting planning permission; it’s only one consideration in the overall planning balance;
  2. Whether the sequential test needs to be satisfied again for planning applications on allocated sites, where the SFRA did not consider flood risk from all sources now and in the future;
  3. How the catchment for identifying reasonably available sites should be defined;
  4. How the scale and density of a proposed development should inform the identification of reasonably available sites; and,
  5. Whether (and how) one should identify and assess a series of smaller sites as part of the sequential test.
The Mead Case was heard by Court of Appeal in November 2024; one of the issues that was addressed through this case was the relationship between the NPPF and PPG.  The forthcoming judgment may have a bearing upon the scope and timing of the forthcoming update to the PPG. Whilst the new NPPF has moved things on in respect of the consideration of flood risk at development management stage, it is clear that things are still far from resolved.
Footnotes
[1] Reference ID: 7-027-20220825
[2] Reference ID: 7-024-20220825

 

Image credit: Chris Gallagher via Unsplash

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A(nother) new Standard Method: Back in Stock

A(nother) new Standard Method: Back in Stock

Bethan Haynes & Edward Clarke 12 Dec 2024
The new standard method for calculating local housing need is one of the central tenets of achieving the Governments objective to deliver 1.5m homes in the current Parliament. The new method is much more ambitious than its predecessor (targeting 372,000 homes per year up 21% from 305,000).
It was for this reason that the proposed changes prompted much commentary when published in July alongside the draft changes to the NPPF. At the national level, the changes to the standard method (in the published – December – version, compared with the draft – July – version) result in broadly the same figure – 370,400 rather than 371,500 per year.
Whilst the changes from the initial draft version might appear imperceptible nationally, they contain a broader shift in the geography of housing need.
 
 

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

The new method aims to boost housing numbers by pinning targets to existing housing stock (rather than household projections, as per the former method) and then uplifting needs, and the target, based on affordability (using a three-year average). It no longer includes a 35% uplift for urban areas and also does away with the ‘cap’. We commented in detail on the proposed changes back in July, here.
So, what has changed between these versions, and what impact could it have?
  1. Starting point – 0.8% of stock – no change between the proposed July and published December methods. Keeping stock as part of the equation provides the important long-term stability and more even starting point;
     
  2. Affordability uplift:
     
    1. Time period – the July method proposed use of three-year affordability average whereas December method proposes use of five-year average. On the whole, five-year affordability ratios are lower than three-year ratios (across England, down 3.4%), so in isolation this change would have a downward effect on numbers;
       
    2. Baseline – the July method proposed an uplift for anywhere where the affordability ratio is above four, whereas the December method proposes an uplift anywhere where the ratio is above five. In isolation, this would have a downward effect (since fewer areas would be subject to an uplift); and,
       
    3. Degree of uplift – the July method proposed that for every 1% the affordability ratio was above the baseline, a 6% uplift would apply. The December method increases this to 0.95%. In isolation, this would have an upward effect.
In short, the changes have the effect of decreasing (or indeed, removing altogether) the affordability uplift – and thus housing numbers – in the most affordable areas, and increasing the affordability uplift and numbers in less affordable areas. In practical terms, from the proposed July version this results in a shift of housing numbers away from the Midlands and North and more greatly concentrated in London and the wider South East, as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
 

Figure 1 – Difference between July and December Method. Source: Lichfields

Figure 2 - Map of change between July and December by LPA

The only way is up (still)

In July, our blog noted that the proposed method was higher than plan requirements, recent delivery and current plans across every region, putting upward pressure on all parts of the country to significantly increase housing delivery (figure 4). Despite the slight shift in housing numbers in the new Standard Method (away from the Midlands/North and towards London/South East), it remains the case that all regions will see housing pressure (above levels of current plans, recent delivery and the current method bar London which is 11% below the previous standard method) as shown in Figure 3. Overall, the new Standard Method is around 60% above plan requirements (ranging from +25% in Yorkshire to 89% in the South East) and 60% above recent delivery (ranging from +10% in the East Midlands to +148% in London).
 
Figure 3 – Plan requirement, recent delivery, current method, July method and December method by Region.

Source: Lichfields based on local plans, MHCLG Live Table 100, ONS.

When looking at housing distribution by type of area[1] (full details of which are described in our July blog), the uplift in London has been largely balanced by slight decreases elsewhere; on the whole areas which are urban/significantly green belt/other national constraint (e.g. National Park, etc) now have a housing need of just under 109,000, down around 5,000 per year from just over 114,000 in the July Method, as shown in Figure 4.
However this is not equal across the country, with constrained parts of the wider South East seeing increases (with many parts of Essex, Hertfordshire, Surrey and Hampshire seeing increases of between 5% and 10% since July), whilst constrained areas in the rest of the country see decreases.
Looking at London specifically, we previously noted that London has been delivering below the London Plan target, and that although some potential NPPF changes to policy on Green Belt review might drive higher targets and delivery, it remains unknown whether London can or will meet needs in full. Reaching even the current London Plan targets (of 53.2K) by end of the current London Plan target period would be an achievement, and delivery would need to more than double to reach the now published standard method figure of nearly 88,000.
 
Figure 4 – Plan requirement, recent delivery, current method, July method and December method by Constraint. 

Source: Lichfields based on local plans, MHCLG Live Table 100, ONS

 

 

Will this achieve Government ambitions for 1.5m?

In July, we noted that, one could see how the [at the time, draft] Standard Method, in combination with proposed NPPF revisions (particularly on duty to cooperate and Green Belt review) had the potential to unlock planning constraints to housebuilding in many locations that have so far capped local plan targets, and to stretch delivery in less constrained areas where current targets are largely already met. The final published method has slightly shifted needs further into London, but there remains upward pressure (when compared with current plans, recent delivery and the current method) across all the regions (bar London which is 11% below the previous standard method).
The importance of setting ambitious housing targets is fundamental to supporting housing delivery; delivery being reliant on land released by the planning system, which is shaped by the targets that are set via a housing need methodology and the national policies of the NPPF that direct how much need is actively planned for in local plans. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) found that: “The planning system is exerting a significant downward pressure on the overall number of planning permissions being granted. Over the long-term, the number of permissions being given has been insufficient to support housebuilding at the level required to meet government targets and measures of assessed need.”
In December 2020, we said about the then current Standard Method was a method that “with a fair wind, [is] a recipe for maintaining (just) current national rates of housing delivery [of around 230K], but seem unlikely to get England over the 300K hurdle.” In February 2023, we said that the then proposed changes to the NPPF could lead to a fall to 156K. The draft method published in July 2024 (along with the proposed changes to the NPPF) represented a significant shift in direction, setting targets well above any levels seen in plan-making historically. But, we noted, plan-making takes time, and the hiatus in plan-making in combination with the recent housing market downturn looks set to see rates of house building at 170-190K this coming year (a fact the Secretary of State highlighted in her Parliamentary statement) and recovery will be gradual. We concluded that the method (published in July) alongside the NPPF is readily consistent with achieving an annual run rate of the 300,000 – something which appears to likely still be the case under the now finalised version of the NPPF.
Despite this positivity, we conclude that we remain unlikely to reach the 1.5m ambition. Even setting aside the practical and market challenges, until Local Plans are in place housing supply in most areas will be monitored against a target (the SM) that is refreshed each year, with any shortfall from that year wiped clean. This means that the under-delivery against 300K in initial years will not be added to the annual requirement for future years, and planning decisions focused on future delivery will be made based on what is needed to achieve the annual target for five years from that rolling date, not the beginning of the Parliament. Although a worsening affordability due to prior under-delivery in early years might nudge the standard method figure up slightly, it is unlikely to be sufficient to 'make good' the annual shortfall of 100-150K that will accumulate in the short term leading to planning for a lower overall number Additionally, even with local plans in place, the time taken for planning applications to worth through the planning system and then build out will mean a lag time to delivery.
We therefore conclude on a similar footing to in July, increasing ‘mandatory targets’ will be a vital lever to plan for and deliver more homes. It is possible that taken together with the other measures the Government have implemented, including the new NPPF, to a delivery rate of 300,000 by the end of the Parliament is achievable. This would be a significant uplift from recent rates, especially the low point of this year, and an achievement with which the Government could be justifiably pleased.
 
 

Footnotes

[1] Category 1: London (the area covered by the Mayor’s London Plan).

Category 2: LPAs where their administrative area is mostly built-up and/or constrained with a significant amount of Green Belt. This is in the context that the NPPF proposes to make brownfield development within settlements acceptable in principle and – most significantly - to compel reviews of the Green Belt and for ‘Grey Belt’ to be capable of development in situations where there is no five year land supply or the Housing Delivery Test (HDT) result is below 75%.

Category 3: LPAs where the administrative area is mostly built up and/or constrained by other national constraints (e.g. national landscapes) for which there is no fundamental change of policy.

Category 4: LPAs in the rest of England – i.e. areas which are unlikely to have fundamental other national policy constraints.

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