Planning matters

Our award winning blog gives a fresh perspective on the latest trends in planning and development.

Putting the ‘local’ into industrial strategy
The dust has now settled on the Government’s eagerly-awaited Industrial Strategy, published back in November 2017 to unveil a long term plan to build a Britain “fit for the future” (for a handy summary of its highlights see our Insight Focus and previous blog). Framed by four bold and ambitious ‘Grand Challenges’, the Industrial Strategy also defines some more immediate, short term deliverables in an attempt to galvanise different places across the country to respond to the national imperative and priority to boost productivity.
The most pressing of these is the requirement for Local Industrial Strategies to be brought forward by Mayoral Combined Authorities (MCAs) and Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) (or devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales). These should set out a plan for how local leaders and businesses will work together to deliver growth. The first are expected by March 2019 and we have seen considerable progress being made up and down Britain to work them up. Local Industrial Strategies will become an important mechanism for places to ‘broker’ a favourable deal with Government for the resources they need to enable growth and development over the coming years.
In many cases, the geography covered by these Local Industrial Strategies will extend to sub-regions, growth ‘corridors’ and large metropolitan areas, so a key challenge will be showcasing a collective economic vision and cohesive plan for growth. This means that local partners – namely local authorities – have a strong incentive to engage with MCAs, LEPs and devolved administrations to proactively steer the development of local strategies to ensure their specific economic priorities and growth opportunities are given the prominence they need.
But in a competitive environment – where those who ‘shout loudest’ often win – local authorities need to be armed with robust evidence, a convincing narrative and a well-articulated case; avoid getting bogged down in detail and instead focus on concise and impactful justification. Above all, the onus is on individual authorities or groups of authorities working together to mobilise now during this current window of opportunity – while there is still time to influence and make a difference.
We have identified 4 key ‘building blocks’ for successful Local Industrial Strategies, summarised below. In our new product brochure, we provide some ideas on how local authorities can proactively shape the development of Local Industrial Strategies for their area, alongside some practical examples of the types of evidence and outputs that could be used to support this process.
      
This provides a useful way of thinking about the best means of interacting with the Local Industrial Strategy process. For instance, you might already have a good understanding of those industrial clusters of particular or unique economic significance in your local area, but need to demonstrate their full economic value in a ‘tangible’ way (see our recent example for Manor Royal Business District in Crawley). Equally, you might have a long ‘wish list’ of local projects and priority schemes but need to establish which ones are most likely to deliver value for money in the context of strong competition for finite funding and resources (for example see our Infrastructure Investment Plan for the Isle of Wight).
At Lichfields, we work closely with a range of different partners across the country to shape the collective economic narrative, vision and strategy to enable places to thrive. We can help by bringing our extensive experience and track record in supporting our clients to articulate their economic case, secure investment and assess their impact.
To find out more, have a look at our new package of services and tools which is specifically designed to help local authorities shape industrial strategies for their area, and get in touch.
 

CONTINUE READING

Planning for enough homes in the first place?
Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its methodology[1] for how it will turn the 2016-based population projections (released in May) into household projections, having taken on this task from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG). When they are released in September, these household projections will provide the critical input to estimates of housing need that will inform the next generation of Local Plans. When combined with the Government’s proposed standard methodology for housing need, the new ONS methodology puts achieving the Government’s housing supply ambition for 300,000 homes per annum at significant risk. This blog explains why.
Since the introduction of the NPPF in 2012, the calculation of objectively assessed housing needs (OAN) has attracted much debate at Local Plan examinations and s.78 appeals across the country. Local authorities, developers and consultants alike have sought to grapple with OAN and have produced varying outcomes, not helped by the level of ambiguity in the current PPG[2]. Debates vary depending on local circumstances but arise from questions such as:
  1. Are the population and/or household projections an appropriate basis for understanding demographic change in an area? For example, have they been affected by unduly low levels of housebuilding, and should they be adjusted to better reflect what future need is likely to be?

  2. Should a market signals uplift be applied, and if so, how big should this be? What indicators should be used, to what should they be compared, and how does one conclude that the uplift could, on reasonable assumptions, be expected to improve affordability?

  3. How does one ensure enough housing to support employment growth? Should this be based on past trends, employment projections or take into account local factors such as City/Growth Deals? How should plan-makers take into account commuting, unemployment and projections of economic activity?

  4. Is the affordable housing needs assessment robust, and has it been adequately reflected in the assessment of overall need?
However this debate plays out, the PPG is in no doubt as to the ‘starting point’ for that debate: the official household projections.

Demographic-led needs

Stage (1) – demographic-led needs – attracts much debate because of its potential to significantly decrease or increase the overall OAN, and is the basis upon which other uplifts (e.g. for market signals or employment) are often applied. Demographic-led needs comprise two elements: (1) population projections, which project the overall number of people and age structure of a given area, and (2) household projections, which project the rate at which certain people (by age and gender) will form households, thus turning the population projection into a household projection.
ONS currently produces population projections (nationally and sub-nationally) every two years, the most recent being the 2016-based projections published on 24th May[3]. It draws upon five-year trends in births, deaths and migration[4] to project growth by local authority over a 25 year period (2016-41). At present the PPG allows for sensitivities to be undertaken to the official projections, meaning plan-makers can base their OAN on alternatives to the official projections if more appropriate to do so. For example, using a longer 10-year migration trend might be more appropriate if there has been a recent fall in housebuilding which is not reflective of ‘the norm’.
Household projections have, until now, been produced by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG)[5] (now MHCLG). DCLG projected trends in household formation based on trends back to 1971. After the 2011 Census, it became clear that household formation fell significantly between 2001 and 2011 (particularly among young adults) and was at its lowest level (Figure 1). At that time, housebuilding similarly fell to its lowest level in recent history, undoubtedly having some impact on the ability of people in these age groups to form households[6]. The 2014-based projections showed no recovery in these rates nationally (with a marginal decline up to 2039 – see Figure 1), albeit the national picture masks significant variation between local authorities, with many areas seeing rates amongst these age groups projected to fall sharply in the future (particularly across the South East)[7].
Figure 1 – Historic and projected household formation rates for 25-34 year olds (England)
The current PPG allows plan-makers to sensitivity test the household projections. Indeed, it explicitly identifies the potential impact of low housebuilding on supressed household formation as an example of something plan-makers may want to consider[8]. This means the OAN assessment can - and where applicable should - reflect some recovery in these rates (rather than simply planning based on past trends, indicating more of what has gone before). Planning for such an improvement helps areas avoid a “vicious circle” scenario where low household projections leads to reduced housing requirements and reduced housebuilding, in turn reducing household formation.

A standard approach to housing needs assessments

In 2015/16, the Local Plans Expert Group (LPEG) was asked by Ministers to put forward recommendations for speeding up local plan production, given the woeful progress being made (only a third of areas had up to date plans). LPEG was told by virtually every person it spoke to that the debate over OAN was the primary factor holding up plan adoption, particularly during the Examination process. It recommended a redraft of the PPG with clearer guidance on the kind of adjustments to make to household projections to reflect migration trends, household formation, market signals and affordable housing need. Guidance was given on how to address employment growth – removed from OAN but retained as a ‘policy-on’ approach. In February 2017, the Government’s Housing White Paper agreed with the principle of simplifying the approach to OAN[9]. In September 2017 it set out its proposed standard method as part of its ‘Planning for the Right Homes in the Right Places’ consultation, which has fed into the draft revised NPPF and draft revised PPG[10].
In its simplest form, the standard method requires local authorities to take its projected household growth from the latest official projections and make a fixed percentage uplift, depending on the local affordability ratio (the ratio of house prices to earnings)[11]. The scope to adopt a number lower than the figure given by this calculation is very limited, although where authorities seek to adopt a higher number (e.g. based on employment growth or infrastructure) Inspectors are advised to find this sound (unless there are compelling reasons not to). When published in 2017, the standard method gave a national total of 266,000 – still well short of the “300,000 per year by the mid-2020s” target set out by Government - indicating that some (or all) local authorities would need to go above and beyond the standard method if national targets are to be met.
Nevertheless, the message from Government on the standard method was clear – the official projections, combined with the local affordability ratio, should be the basis for planning for housing.

New household projections – unintended consequences?

Production of the household projections has now moved to ONS, which will publish its first round of projections – the 2016-based household projections – later this year. Last week (on 20th June 2018), it set out its proposed changes to the methodology. For the most part, these changes were minor or did not affect planning (e.g. removing outputs by marital status). However, there was one small – but significant – change which could have potentially significant impacts on planning for housing, particularly in the short to medium term. Unlike DCLG, which based its projections on household trends back to 1971, ONS now proposes only to use trends in household formation back to 2001. Whilst ONS proposed to hold rates constant post-2021, its methodology still implies a much sharper decline in formation rates in the shorter term. We know that in the decade 2001-11 housebuilding fell to its lowest level and household formation amongst young adults changed significantly. If the new household projections only draw upon this (relatively) short term trend for projecting future household growth, is there a significant risk of ‘baking-in’ trends which are not reflective of future ‘need’ but simply an illustration of what the number would be if we continued more of what has been before?
ONS had consulted on its approach in 2017, and many respondents (including Lichfields) pointed out the need for the methodology to reflect not just a ‘purist’ demographic approach, but reflect on the real-world implications for housing need. Suggestions were made that ONS might wish to consider producing local ‘variant’ projections (as DCLG used to do at a national level) with modified formation rates as the basis for the standard methodology. It does not appear ONS intends to follow this advice.
ONS has yet to publish any detailed methodology or figures, but Figure 2 shows what a simple linear trend would be on national formation rates (for 25-34 year olds) based on 2001-11 change. As expected, it shows that formation rates for 25-34 year olds would fall more significantly in the short term than DCLG had previously suggested. For 25-29 years, formation rates could be as low as 36% by 2021 (compared to 45% in 1991) and for 30-34 year olds could be just under 48% (compared to 52% in the 1990s). Over the next 10 years (by 2026) this could yield 150,000 fewer households, or 15,000 less a year than indicated based on current projections. When the Government’s standard methodology is applied, this could bring the national total to around 230,000 homes per annum, some 70,000 below the 300,000 aspiration.
Figure 2 – Projected formation rates for 25-34 year olds (England) based on 2001-11 trend

Final thoughts

If we are to have a simplified, standard method for calculating housing needs it becomes ever more important that the inputs to the calculation are fit-for-purpose. There were already concerns that the 2014-based projections were infected by some suppression of household formation, but the ONS proposed methodology firmly bakes in these problems. It could lock many areas into vicious cycle: reducing the number of homes required based on lower projections, in turn leading to reduced housing supply. All the while, Government maintains its ambition for housebuilding to reach 300,000 homes a year.
In July we expect the Government to confirm its changes to the NPPF and PPG including the standard methodology. The Government’s draft proposals, with a formula-based market signals uplift of up to 40% (capped) to address affordability and consequences of housing undersupply were set based on the previous DCLG methodology for household projections. If the demographic baseline to which the Government applies its market signals is reduced, there is a compelling case for Government to look again at the standard methodology. It should do this by:
  1. Revisiting the formula for market signals to give greater uplifts to reflect the lower demographic starting point and help induce household formation (as the Redfern Review[14] indicated). At minimum it should remove the 40% cap which has logical flaws, including creating perverse incentives for Councils in the least affordable areas that oppose development to drive down their development ambitions and be ‘rewarded’ with a reduced housing need figure in the next round of projections.

  2. Encouraging ONS to look again at producing local variants of household projections which seek to answer the planner’s question ‘what is likely to be needed in the future?’ rather than the demographer’s question: ‘what will happen in the future if current trends continue?’. These variant projections then become the reference point in the PPG.

  3. Alternatively, the Government should change the standard methodology to move away from demographic projections, and give greater emphasis on the market signals element. Perhaps the assessment should move completely away from demographic projections (and all their built-in inadequacies that result from projecting forward a period of housing undersupply). It might be more appropriate, for example, to focus on stock growth as the starting point, and adjusting for market signals according to local pressures.
Without these changes, it is not at all clear that the next generation of Local Plans will come anywhere near to hitting 300,000 homes per annum, even with the Growth Deal incentives the Government has been piloting in areas such as Oxfordshire.
The Government’s focus has been on planning for the right homes in the right places, but maybe we should be considering the more fundamental question of planning for enough homes in the first place.

 

[1] See ONS Methodology Statement here[2] See PPG guidance on Housing Needs Assessments here[3] See ONS’s latest Population Projections here[4] Projections for birth and death rates for LPAs are also influenced by national expectations of births and deaths based on longer term trends. Similarly, international migration projections are driven by the total projection nationally, which is based on longer term trends.[5] See DCLG’s methodology for the household projections here  [6] Changes in household formation amongst these age groups can also be linked to other factors, e.g. increased participation in higher education amongst young adults.[7] See DCLG 2014-based household projections here[8] PPG ID 2a-015.[9] See Housing White Paper here[10] Read more on Lichfields’ thoughts on the draft revised NPPF here[11] Read more on the standard methodology in Lichfields’ insight here[12] Based on applying the 2014-based household projections and the 2001-11 trend household projections to the 2016-based SNPP, allowing for communal establishment residents.[13] http://britainthinks.com/pdfs/TW082_RR_online_PDF.pdf 

CONTINUE READING

Lichfields ready for #GetNorth2018

Lichfields ready for #GetNorth2018

Robert Dibden 21 Jun 2018
Anticipation is building in the North East ahead of the opening of the UK’s biggest cultural event of 2018. Starting on Friday 22 June, NewcastleGateshead will host the Great Exhibition of the North, a three month celebration of the North of England’s contribution to art and science across the world.
The Great Exhibition is intended to showcase the talents of the North, both past and present, through a series of exhibits, live performances, new artworks and experiences. It forms part of the Government’s wider Northern Powerhouse agenda and is arguably the most tangible contribution to date.
The cityscape of NewcastleGateshead will provide the physical backdrop to an event which is hoped to mark the next step forward for the City’s regeneration. Starting with the opening evening’s celebration, NewcastleGateshead’s Quayside will provide the stunning setting for the Exhibition’s showcase installation; a spectacular water sculpture which will see 30 rocket jets project vertical columns of water between 25m and 50m into the air right in the middle of the River Tyne. The sculpture is inspired by another of the North East’s cultural icons, the Angel of the North in Gateshead, and mimics the Angel’s 75m wingspan.
Situated between the famous Millennium and Tyne Bridges, it should certainly be a dramatic display the like of which has never before been seen on the River. Lichfields are delighted to have prepared and managed the planning applications required to install the sculpture, which in planning terms occupies a highly sensitive location bounded by Newcastle’s Central Conservation Area to the north, and Gateshead’s Bridges Conservation Area to the south west. A number of listed buildings are also situated in close proximity to the application site, including the Tyne Bridge. Working with both Newcastle City Council and Gateshead Council, Lichfields prepared a robust assessment of the installation’s potential impact upon these heritage assets, and also worked with several consultees in order to mitigate against any possible ecological impacts. This resulted in the rapid granting of both planning applications within just six weeks of submission.
 
Aside from the opening evening, the Great Exhibition includes a number of other art installations and events which will be in place until September. These include the return of Stephenson’s Rocket to the Great North Museum in Newcastle, a week-long festival of northern music at Sage Gateshead, and a summit to showcase Northern business innovation.
 
In addition, Lichfields also obtained three separate Scheduled Monument Consents for the installation of ‘Whistle’, a temporary art installation comprising a series of replica steam locomotive whistles tracing the route of Newcastle’s ancient town walls. This installation is intended to highlight the centuries of development of Newcastle as a great northern city. The whistles will be triggered once a day at precisely 1pm and are exact replicas of the distinctive bell whistles unique to North Eastern railway locomotives; recalling the role of Newcastle in the development of railways and locomotive engineering.
 
As planners we couldn’t be more aware of the positive contribution events such as the Great Exhibition can have in terms of cultural and economic regeneration. Think, for example, of Liverpool’s year as European Capital of Culture in 2008 and the impetus this clearly provided for development in that City [1]. NewcastleGateshead itself has a proud heritage of these kind of major cultural events, going back all the way to Gateshead’s Garden Festival in the summer of 1990 and the contribution this made to the remediation and clearance of land which has subsequently been developed to provide innovative housing and recreational schemes.
 
In purely economic terms, the Great Exhibition itself is this time expected to reach an audience of three million people during 2018, with up to 600,000 additional overnight visitors, and to bring in up to £56 million to the area’s economy.
 
At Lichfields we are thrilled to have played our part in assisting with preparations for the Great Exhibition, and we would urge anyone to make a visit to NewcastleGateshead this summer to experience for yourself all that the North East can offer.
 
You can find out more about the Great Exhibition of the North here.

 [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-42637759

CONTINUE READING

Is your project locked in an echo chamber?

Is your project locked in an echo chamber?

Helen Ashby-Ridgway 18 Jun 2018
Around 10 years ago, Lichfields advised on a modest eight-dwelling development. It was not a sensitive site and the principle of development had already been established by a previous appeal decision.
The only difference between the appeal scheme and the later proposal was a new, narrow foul water drainage pipe routed through adjacent woodland. A great deal of iterative design work had taken place on the precise route of the pipeline, particularly to respond to detailed tree and ecology surveys.
As the principle of development had already been established, it was decided that community engagement was not necessary for the new proposal. With the benefit of hindsight, this proved to be an unfortunate omission. A number of objections to the pipeline were raised and this small-scale development was called in by the local ward councillor to be determined by the planning committee. A few days before the meeting, the Committee visited the site and at this point it all became clear. An influential member of the community had been reporting to local residents that the development included a 60m diameter pipeline through the woodland: the pipeline in reality would only be 60mm in diameter, however. No wonder the local community was concerned!
Had someone stopped and thought about the reality of this for a moment, they would have realised that a pipeline of 60m was unlikely. This was only a scheme for eight dwellings and the woods were only 85m at their widest - the Channel Tunnels are only 7.6m in diameter. Despite these facts, the rumour mill had started and there had seemed to be no stopping it.
Having now understood the concerns, we explained the proposal and corrected the misinformation, which put the local residents’ minds at rest. Planning permission was granted at the subsequent committee meeting.
Roll on ten years and it is now said that we are living in a post-truth society, with social media playing a significant role in providing fake news. Had our eight-dwelling scheme been submitted today, the local community’s objection, despite being based on false information, could have spread much further afield via social media and misled objectors could have been mobilised in greater numbers.
Mis-information spirals and fears of development proposals are heightened through the creation of community ‘echo-chambers’ (today’s online equivalent of the inaccurate information feeding into the rumour mill). Social media often creates echo chambers of similar views and the challenge is to break these up where their messages are inaccurate.
Hence there are good reasons why applicants should no longer be ignoring social media as part of their planning strategies, as Sarah Watts’s recent blog on the pros and cons of using social media in consultation and engagement explains.
The key concerns for applicants considering using social media include needing to know:
  • how to use social media;
  • how to engage with those who post;
  • how to monitor content;
  • how to be proactive rather than reactive; and
  • how to effectively respond to the most challenging posts, reputation management, data quality and the potential overwhelming volume of information.
So what should a developer do?
The starting point is to plan to use social media to its full effect - don’t ignore it just because of perceived potential risks. The focus should be on using social media for the benefits it can bring.
At the very minimum, a good planning strategy will include social media monitoring. Once underway, this ensures an advantage over those ignoring social media entirely. Monitoring enables the identification of project supporters and makes it possible to identify those individuals and groups where consultation and engagement activities may or may not be needed, and any messages strengthened.
And there is more...
An active social media management strategy helps discover, understand and identify the influencers and campaigners in a community. This information can then be used to increase levels of engagement as the scheme designs evolves, to encourage positive discussions during the consultation period, to understand the views of the community, and help with interaction where this is needed. It is much more likely that appropriate responses to the naysayers can be formulated in advance too, if and when that time comes.
Compared with traditional exhibitions and pre-application events, over the past few years there has been a shift in those who are talking about projects and what they are saying. Social media attracts a wider range of people, drawing many of the hitherto silent majority into the conversation. Local communities know their areas better than anyone and are often passionate about their economic and social history, and any changes that are likely to come about from proposed development. If there is inadequate, deficient or inappropriate engagement with local communities, it is not unusual for their objections to be grounded in fear and a lack of understanding of the proposed development, or for there to be perceived deficiencies in the applicant’s understanding of the context of the site.
Monitoring and managing social media as part of consultation and engagement should be undertaken as part of a clear integrated strategy for a development project, rather than being an add–on, or a knee jerk reaction at a late stage in the planning process. Engaging with communities at different stages using a multi-media approach enables wider communities to become involved and empowered – often to the overall benefit of a development proposal. By using a range of tools and techniques, with social media being just one of them, a new group of people can be reached and stronger support for a project can be achieved.

CONTINUE READING