Planning matters

A few weeks ago, our colleagues wrote how updates[1] to non-statutory guidance for delivering school places can support planned housing growth, especially in the context of the Government’s ambition to build 1.5 million homes over this Parliament. However, planning for future demand is rarely straightforward.

The autumn return-to-school period is often peppered with articles highlighting an uneven return, with some schools often located in urban areas remaining closed following the summer break[2]. In most cases, a decline in student enrolment is cited as the culprit for the schools’ closure. This decline is well documented[3] and generally reflects broader demographic shifts, particularly within inner urban areas.

This poses a significant challenge for education planners who must balance the logistics (and costs) of maintaining school facilities with falling demand while ensuring education standards remain uncompromised. This blog assesses the complexities of modern school planning, and the delicate balancing act required to navigate these challenges. It concludes by exploring how unused facilities can be repurposed to support the wider skills agenda by reimagining the role of schools as more than just functional buildings.

Urban out-migration is not a new phenomenon, particularly amongst younger families seeking more space, better access to green spaces and greater affordability in less dense areas. Even before the outbreak of Covid-19, families were gradually leaving cities, particularly inner urban areas, with the pandemic greatly accelerating this trend. With many working remotely to a much greater degree and reassessing their living situation, the demand for school places in urban areas has been significantly impacted. Additionally, falling birth rates – particularly amongst urban populations – have contributed to a notable decline in the quantum of school-aged children within cities and urban areas. However, how is this possible at a time when the demand for housing has never been higher?

The key lies in the changing composition of the local population. While more than 37,700 new homes are built in London each year, these are generating an overall lower demand for school places (i.e. both primary and secondary). In the case of London, the Greater London Authority’s (GLA) Population Yield Calculator[4] is the statutory tool used to estimate the number of children and young people any new development could accommodate. However, long-term enrolment data from the Department for Education[5] (DfE) suggests that for some areas, especially Inner London boroughs, the projected demand for primary school places (i.e. using the GLA’s Population Yield Calculator) can be as much as 50% higher than the actual demand (i.e. using DfE statistics). In contrast, demand levels in Outer London boroughs align more closely with pupil projections, as do pupil projections for schools in the Home Counties, and secondary schools more broadly.

Before proceeding further, it is worth noting that the above analysis provides a simplified view of reality. The situation surrounding school planning is far more complex and varies not only between Inner and Outer London boroughs, but also within individual local authority areas. In some areas demand may be falling overall, but pockets of significant investment where new neighbourhoods and/or urban extensions are under construction (such as the Greenwich Peninsula or the former London Legacy Development Corporation area) may see a growing demand. Furthermore, the demand for special education needs (SEN) schools and alternative provision (AP) adds another layer of complexity.

A review of school planning strategies in a selection of Inner and Outer London boroughs reveals a myriad of approaches to addressing the current and anticipated future challenges posed by declining pupil enrolment.

In Outer London boroughs, many strategies continue to emphasise the need for ongoing investment in new/upgraded facilities. These boroughs often frame themselves as areas where demand remains high necessitating continued funding for school expansion and upgrades to facilities. However, planning authorities in these areas are closely monitoring enrolment trends to ensure a careful balance between the supply of places and pupil demand. A common theme is the prioritisation of SEN schools and AP, reflecting a growing need for these and other specialised services.

Meanwhile, Inner London boroughs often find themselves grappling more directly with falling pupil numbers. The strategies employed by Inner London boroughs vary; some schools are reducing their published admission numbers (PAN), whilst others are temporarily decreasing the quantum of forms of entry (FE) available. These approaches allow schools to reduce their operational costs, adjust to the drop in demand, and keep their doors open.

For instance, the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham has adopted a policy of approving new school developments only when the level of surplus capacity falls below 5%. The borough is also focusing on using funds from new developments to refurbish and maintain existing school buildings, many of which require funding for repairs and maintenance.

In contrast, the London Borough of Tower Hamlets has embraced a more collaborative approach to schools planning. This includes working with schools to explore new models of organisation, such as converting existing facilities to incorporate AP or SEN provision. Their strategy includes the amalgamation of schools where appropriate, with closures considered only as a last resort.

Out-migration, falling birth rates and declining school populations are likely to continue in many of our inner urban areas particularly, raising an important question - what happens to unused school facilities? Proposals included within the Labour party’s 2024 Election Manifesto introduce the idea of converting empty classrooms into high-quality nursery spaces.

However, land will always be a valuable commodity, especially in dense parts of London, which is likely to put vacant school buildings under pressure for redevelopment into other uses. This could include community uses, housing (in particular affordable housing) and/or mixed-use developments. A focus on family-centric housing could, in theory, encourage more families to remain in urban areas, stemming the decline in school enrolments, and reducing the number of school closures.

Away from London, there are numerous examples showing how unused school buildings are being repurposed to meet changing community needs. For instance, following closure of the Isle of Wight Studio School in 2019, the Council transformed the unused building into a satellite facility for the nearby St George’s SEN school which was at the time overwhelmed by demand.

In addition to their functional role, small village schools often become regarded as community anchors; however, these tend to be especially vulnerable to changing demand. Recently, two schools located within the remote villages of Dymchurch and Lydd (in Kent) have had to slash class numbers. Whilst exploring the viability of delivering alternative uses on-site (such as nurseries), Folkestone & Hythe Council continues to face uncertainty about how best to balance future demand with the need to make better use of unused facilities over the short term.

The ongoing decline in school populations reflects deep-rooted demographic shifts and social trends, many of which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. To address this challenge effectively, local authorities tasked with school planning must navigate a delicate balance of managing underused school facilities, whilst ensuring education standards remain uncompromised. Reducing costs through flexible enrolment policies and the repurposing of school facilities are two of several strategies being employed by education planning authorities in London and elsewhere.

However, a more creative and ambitious approach is needed; one which rethinks the role of schools as more than just functional buildings. To truly address this challenge, schools planning needs to incorporate a holistic, system-wide approach; one which catalyses local authorities, state schools, academies and other stakeholders to take collective action.

We need bold, forward-thinking initiatives that reimagine school buildings as dynamic hubs with multiple purposes for multiple audiences at different times of the day. These spaces can go beyond educating young minds, by actively contributing to their communities and the economy more widely. Vacant buildings could be repurposed to support local skills development, strengthen workforce resilience and develop the skills needed to ensure delivery of a modern economy.