Planning matters

In his blog at the beginning of the year on the potential changes for retail and town centre planning on the horizon from the draft 2025 NPPF consultation[1], my colleague James Cox referenced “… the way we use, experience and value our town centres has changed fundamentally”.

This got us thinking about the data behind town centres, and the wider narrative of ‘the death of the high street’ that has grown around the data to forecast the health of a centre (or otherwise).

 

From the early 1980s through to the mid‑2000s, the phrase ‘death of the high street’ barely registered, appearing only in small, irregular spikes[2]. Usage began to rise steadily after 2010 (likely coinciding with a wave of closures following the 2008 financial crisis[3]), before accelerating sharply from around 2017. By the early 2020s, it had reached its highest level on record. 

The idea has well and truly taken on a life of its own, well beyond planning circles.

In fact, the phrase has become so culturally embedded that it has even been adopted as the name of an indie punk band from the Midlands…

 

But whilst the narrative of the “death” of the high street is both recent and populist, it has grown precisely as town centres have been challenged to diversify, in most cases as a response to the structural and economic changes in retail. So, what does the data actually show when we look at the evolving mix of uses on the high street?

There are different ways of approaching this subject, one of which is to look at the total quantum of floorspace and how this has changed over time. Experian data suggests that all retail floorspace totalled 626 million sq ft in 2015 (58 million sq m), which rose to 641 million sq ft (60 million sq m) in 2024, the last full year in which total floorspace figures are available.

Of this, convenience goods[4] floorspace has grown from 153 million sq ft in 2015 (14 million sq m) to 176 million sq ft (16 million sq m) in 2024, whilst comparison goods[5] floorspace has fallen from 472 million sq ft in 2015 (44 million sq m) to 466 million sq ft (43 million sq m) in 2024.

 

However, the broad quantum of floorspace can only tell so much and is potentially tied to larger macro-economic factors that will influence the amount a population is willing to spend, particularly for comparison goods retailing.

We are, of course, not the first to broach this topic. It is interesting to note academic[6] analysis of five UK cities that suggested a greater level of diversity of uses as the proportion of comparison goods retailing fell between 2000 and 2017, with notable variations across the centres.

National average data from Experian[7] allows us to track changes across the mix and composition of town centre uses since 2015, shown in the graph below. This is, of course, a 'zoomed out' view of town centres over the time, and a notable caveat to the following analysis of national averages is that there have undoubtedly been centres that have experience more drastic changes over the last few years (both for the better, and for the worse). Ultimately, not all locations, regions or types of centres will have fared the same. There is, however, merit in taking a closer look at the headline changes and what this means for how we talk about town centres as an industry.

Rather than wholesale disruption, the data shows a far more balanced series of small adjustments that point to a gradual rebalancing of town centre economies. 

The clearest trend is the decline of comparison goods retail, dropping from around 36% in 2015 to just under 30% today. There is no single reason for this, which is likely to have resulted from a combination of structural pressures including:

 

• changes in disposable income
• disruptions to the visitor economy, which will have recovered at different rates across the regions following COVID-19
• growing economic pressures from both rents and business rates on retailers with larger portfolios, contributing to a number of high-profile closures (Debenhams, Arcadia, BHS etc.)
• increases in online spending
• complications and rising costs across storage, transportation, and logistics networks
• competing pressures from larger regional centres and retail parks

However disruptive the loss of large comparison goods retailers may be for individual town centres, the data suggests that this decline is not sudden or chaotic. It is a gentle reduction of less than one percentage point per year and, importantly, these vacancies have generally been filled with alternative uses.

 

In contrast to comparison retailers, other uses have however shown consistent increases:

 

• Restaurants and cafés have grown modestly since 2015, supporting their role as a key draw of social activity across town centres.
   
• Pubs and bars have remained remarkably stable and the proportion has even grown slightly, countering another common narrative about the loss of pubs. However, we would note that the Experian data covers around 3,000 centres and does not include isolated or out-of-centre facilities where the majority of closures[8] may have occurred.
   
• Fast and hot food takeaways in centres have effectively plateaued at just over 6%.
   
• Convenience retail has grown steadily from 8% to 10%, highlighting its ongoing resilience.
   
• Other non‑retail services have grown from 12% to 16%, making them one of the strongest upward trends, driven by a consistent surge of health and beauty openings.
   
• Financial and professional services are the only other category of uses to have shown a consistent decline across centres from 12% to less than 8% over the last decade. This is an example of a broader narrative that does hold true, with last years’ House of Lords Library briefing clearly setting out the key considerations. Hope, however, is on the horizon with the growth of banking hubs[9] providing an innovative model for communities that are no longer able to support multiple dedicated banking branches.

Together, these patterns illustrate a shift towards town centres as social and service hubs, not purely shopping destinations. Places to spend time, meet and socialise, rather than a sole raison d’être to shop.

 

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the data is the relative stability of vacancies. Despite COVID‑19 and the associated social lockdowns, disruptions to global supply chains, macro-economic uncertainty, the introduction of Class E, and a decade of media stories about widespread closures, vacancies have only moved within a narrow band of about 12-15%, broadly plateauing since 2020. 

Of course, the experience of individual centres may vary across regions and different types of centres reflecting their mix and composition, reliance on specific anchor tenants, and the resilience of their local catchment to wider economic shocks. To a certain extent, the national average somewhat disguises the winners and losers with higher performing centres potentially propping up those that are struggling (maybe the topic for another blog).

Nonetheless, the data suggests that many centres have adjusted effectively to the reduction in comparison goods retailers. This challenges one of the most persistent myths of the high street, that vacancies are spiralling out of control. In reality, there is no sign of the dramatic vacancy spike that dominates media narratives.

 

Now, for a moment of personal reflection. I was one of the chorus of planners aghast at the chutzpah (look it up) of the Government driving a horse and cart through decades of carefully crafted retail and town centre policy with the introduction of Use Class E. 

Surely, we thought as one, this would mean the end of Local Planning Authorities’ ability to control the mix of uses in their centres, inevitably leading to the widespread loss of town centre retail stores to bubble tea cafes, and the mass conversion of out-of-centre office blocks with dedicated car parking to multi-storey supermarkets.

To my credit, the introduction of Class E in 2020 does mark the only point in the last decade where the proportion of main town centre uses shift at once. Frustratingly, from a data analysis perspective, this coincides with the introduction of nationwide social lockdowns, which somewhat muddies the water.

And what did we see? The proportion of services ticked up (0.8 percentage points), as did vacancies (2.5). The number of retailers fell at a slightly greater rate (-3.6 points from 2020-2026, compared to -2.7 points over 2015-2020), and hospitality uses began a pattern of gentle growth (2.5). But even here the change is an evolution, not a revolution. The world did not end, and all these trends were largely already in play.

Town centres may not therefore be dying, but potentially evolving to market, structural and social changes. Retail is still central to town centres with convenience and comparison retails collectively making up around 38% of units, albeit this has fallen from 44% a decade ago. As the proportion of comparison retail stores and financial and professional services across centres has fallen, non-retail services and hospitality uses are quietly and sustainably filling the gaps.

Whilst you can always find examples at the extremes of the average, and this is certainly an area for further research given the broad nature of the analysis[10], the national average data over the last decade tells a story of subtle shifts and places adapting at their own pace.

For planners, the task ahead is not to panic and not to rush to reinvent town centres in response to perceived trends, but to work with the market to refine centres. Given the incremental nature of change, our priorities should focus on managing transitions, shaping the balance of uses across centres, improving the overarching town centre environment, and supporting the underlying social and economic role of town centres.