“Can local schools accommodate the pupils generated by new housing?”
This is a question that is frequently asked by both local planning authorities and developers when new homes are proposed. It is also a question that can create significant concern locally, with communities concerned about the impact of new development on overstretched school capacity.
However, the relationship between housing and education is complex. In some areas, school rolls are falling and new housing could help support the long-term sustainability of local schools. In others, schools are already under pressure and further housing growth could add to capacity issues.
Understanding this relationship, and how it may change over time, is therefore important when planning for new housing.
A change in demand
The number of school-age children is changing across the UK. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) forecasts that the number of children aged under 16 in the UK will fall by around 800,000 between 2025 and 2035, with declines of 6% in England, 8% in Scotland, 10% in Wales and 15% in Northern Ireland.
This is already being reflected in school rolls. Pupil numbers fell in England, Scotland and Wales between 2024 and 2025 and further declines are expected in all three countries in the next 10 years.
At the same time, significant pressures on school capacity remain in some areas. In England, there were around 1.2 million unfilled school places in 2024/25, which is the equivalent of 13% of capacity, while 14% of primary schools and 19% of secondary schools were at or above capacity.
This demonstrates the complex relationship between housing and education infrastructure and how demand can differ across areas. As well as new housebuilding, there are several other factors that can influence the demand for school places:
Population change |
A school operating close to capacity today may see its roll decline as the number of children in the local population falls. While this can create additional capacity, sustained falls in pupil numbers can also create challenges for the long-term sustainability of schools, particularly where they have fewer pupils to support. New housebuilding can therefore help sustain existing schools in areas where pupil numbers are falling; Equally, a school with significant capacity today may face pressure in the future as the population increases in the area.
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Household turnover |
Families often stay in their homes for a number of years meaning that an initial increase in demand generated by new housebuilding may not be sustained over the longer term. This is particularly the case once children enter the school system. Anecdotal evidence suggests many families remain in the same home from the time their children are young, through to adulthood, with the children eventually leaving the family home while the parents remain.
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School popularity |
Areas with highly-ranked schools often experience greater demand for family housing, with families often choosing to live in these areas. This can mean that some schools experience pressure for places while capacity remains available elsewhere in the school estate.
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This means that the education impact of new housing cannot be calculated by simply applying a pupil yield to the number of homes proposed. The impact needs to be considered alongside the existing school estate, future demographic change and other planned development in the area.
Where Education Assessments can help
Education Assessments can establish the likely pupil generation from a proposed development and consider this alongside existing and projected school capacity, demographic trends and other planned housing.
They can help to answer questions such as:
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Can existing local schools accommodate additional pupils generated by new housing development?
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Are demographic trends likely to influence future school capacity?
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Is additional investment or expansion likely to be required?
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What are the likely education infrastructure implications of the proposed development?
This evidence can support decision making at different stages of the planning process.
For local planning authorities, Education Assessments can inform Local Plan evidence bases, help assess proposed housing allocations and identify future education infrastructure requirements. They can help authorities understand where housing growth can be accommodated within the existing school estate, where new development could support existing schools and where additional infrastructure may be required.
For developers, assessments can support site promotions and planning applications by identifying potential education issues at an early stage. They can also provide an important evidence base when considering education contributions and whether the level of mitigation sought is proportionate to the impact of the development.
Approaches to calculating education contributions vary significantly between planning authorities across the UK. In some areas, contributions are sought to address wider education capacity issues rather than the direct impact of an individual development, which can result in viability concerns.
Where existing schools have capacity, or where demographic change is expected to reduce demand, it is important that this is properly recognised when considering the infrastructure implications of new housing. Understanding the actual impact of a proposal is therefore important when determining what mitigation is necessary and what represents a fair and reasonable contribution.
Considering education infrastructure early in the process allows developers and local authorities to identify potential issues, explore mitigation where necessary and support more efficient decision making.
Lichfields approach
Lichfields prepares Education Assessments for housing developments across the UK, supporting site promotions, Local Plan evidence, planning applications and developer contribution negotiations.
While the overall principles of education planning are consistent across the UK, forecasting models, pupil product ratios and planning policy requirements can all differ. In Scotland, England and Wales, local planning authorities each apply their own approaches to understanding education capacity.
Our approach takes this into account and combines population analysis, housing growth, school capacity data and local policy to provide clear, evidence-based assessments that reflect the specific circumstances of each area.
To explain our methodology, we have developed an Education Assessment Toolkit, which sets out the approach we take when assessing the education implications of housing development. The toolkit explains the evidence we consider, the process we follow and the principles that underpin our assessments.
Whether supporting a strategic housing allocation, preparing a planning application or assessing the education implications of a proposed housing development, our approach is designed to provide useful insights to allow constructive discussions between developers and local planning authorities.
As population, housing delivery and school capacity change, understanding where education demand will arise and the impact of new housing will remain an important part of planning for sustainable communities.
We will continue to share further insights on education planning, including the relationship between demographic change, housing delivery and future demand for school places in the following months.
Footnotes
